Andrés Rodríguez-Clare

Working Papers

• "The 2025 Trade War: Dynamic Impacts Across U.S. States and the Global Economy" (with Mauricio Ulate and Jose P. Vasquez)

• "Scaling Agricultural Policy Interventions: Theory and Evidence from Uganda" (with Lauren Bergquist, Ben Faber, Thibault Fally, Matthias Hoelzlein, and Ted Miguel), April 2025. Revision submitted to Econometrica.

Work in Progress

• "The New Quantitative Trade Model: Equilibrium and Welfare Analysis" (with Dominick Bartelme, Konstantin Kucheryavyy, and Yuyang Jiang), preliminary slides, October 2023.

• "The Carbon Footprint of Multinational Production" (with Ezequiel Garcia-Lembergman, Natalia Ramondo, and Joe Shapiro).

• "Optimality with Intertemporal Externalities," (with Zhuokai Huang and Demian Pouzo).

Handbook Chapters

• "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization" (with Arnaud Costinot), Handbook of International Economics Volume 4, edited by G. Gopinath, E. Helpman, and K. Rogoff, 2014. Online Appendix, Codes and Data

• "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy," (with Ann Harrison), Handbook of Development Economics Volume 5, edited by D. Rodrik and M. Rosenzweig, 2010.

• "Externalities and Growth," (with Pete Klenow) Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume 1A, edited by P. Aghion and S. Durlauf, 2005.

Refereed Publications

• "Trade with Nominal Rigidities: Understanding the Unemployment and Welfare Effects of the China Shock" (with Mauricio Ulate and Jose P. Vasquez), March 2025. Forthcoming in the Journal of Political Economy.

• "The Textbook Case for Industrial Policy: Theory Meets Data" (with Dominick Bartelme, Arnaud Costinot and Dave Donaldson), Journal of Political Economy, May 2025.

• "The Small-Open Economy in a Generalized Gravity Model" (with Svetlana Demidova, Konstantin Kucheryavyy and Takumi Naito), Journal of International Economics, November 2024. Online Appendix. Slides for the 2022 version.

• "Spatial Equilibria: The Case of Two Regions" (with Gary Lyn and Konstantin Kucheryavyy), Journal of International Economics, November 2024. Online Appendix.

• "The Intensive Margin in Trade: How Big and How Important?" (with Ana Fernandes, Pete Klenow, Martha Denisse Pierola and Sergii Meleshchuk), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2023. Online Appendix.

• "Grounded by Gravity: A Well-Behaved Trade Model with Industry-Level Economies of Scale" (with Konstantin Kucheryavyy and Gary Lyn), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, April 2023. Codes and Data. Online Appendix.

• "Slicing the Pie: Quantifying the Aggregate and Distributional Consequences of Trade" (with Simon Galle and Moises Yi), Review of Economic Studies, January 2023. Slides. Slides with no equations. Online Appendix. Replication package.

• "Micro to Macro: Optimal Trade Policy with Firm Heterogeneity" (with Arnaud Costinot and Iván Werning), Econometrica, November, 2020. Online Appendix.

• "The Elusive Pro-Competitive Effects of Trade" (with Costas Arkolakis, Arnaud Costinot, and Dave Donaldson), Review of Economic Studies,  January 2019. Online Appendix.

• "Innovation and Production in the Global Economy" (with Costas Arkolakis, Natalia Ramondo and Stephen Yeaple), American Economic Review, August 2018. Online Appendix.

• "Trade, Domestic Frictions, and Scale Effects" (with Natalia Ramondo and Milagro Saborio), American Economic Review, October 2016. Appendix. Slides. Extension to Multinational Production. Longer version: NBER Working paper No. 18532. A previous version of this working paper containing a detailed analysis of the symmetric case can be found here.

• "External Economies and International Trade Redux: A Comment" (with Gary Lyn), Quarterly Journal of Economics, November 2013, Online Appendix.

• "The Simple Analytics of the Melitz Model in a Small Open Economy" (with Svetlana Demidova), Journal of International Economics, July 2013.

• "Trade, Multinational Production, and the Gains from Openness," (with Natalia Ramondo), Journal of Political Economy, April 2013. Auxiliary files.

• "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?" (with Costas Arkolakis and Arnaud Costinot), American Economic Review, February 2012, Online Appendix.

• "Entrepreneurship and the Extensive Margin in Export Growth: A Microeconomic Accounting of Costa Rica’s Export Growth during 1997-2007" (with Daniel Lederman and Daniel Yi Xu), World Bank Economic Review, 2011 (Vol. 25, No. 3)

• "Offshoring in a Ricardian World," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 2, No. 2, April 2010. Auxiliary files.

• "Trade Policy under Firm-Level Heterogeneity in a Small Economy," (with Svetlana Demidova), Journal of International Economics, Vol. 78, No. 1, June 2009, Pages 100-112.

• "Innovation Shortfalls," (with William Maloney), Review of Development Economics, Vol. 11, No. 4, November 2007, pp. 665-684.

• "A Political Economy Theory of Trade Agreements," (with Giovanni Maggi), American Economic Review, Vol. 97, No. 4, September 2007, pp. 1374-1406.

• "Clusters and Comparative Advantage: Implications for Industrial Policy," Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 82 (February 2007), pp. 43-57

• "Import Penetration and the Politics of Trade Protection," (with Giovanni Maggi), Journal of International Economics, vol. 51, pp. 287-304, August 2000.

• "The Value of Free Trade Agreements in the Presence of Political Pressures," (with Giovanni Maggi), Journal of Political Economy, June 1998

• "Multinationals, Linkages and Economic Development," American Economic Review, September 1996.

• "The Division of Labor and Economic Development," Journal of Development Economics, June 1996.

• "Costly Distortion of Information in Agency Problems," RAND Journal of Economics, (with Giovanni Maggi), winter 1995.

• "On Countervailing Incentives," Journal of Economic Theory, (with Giovanni Maggi), July 1995.

Other Publications

• "The Gains from Trade in Poor and Rich Countries," in Meeting Globalization's Challenges: Policies to Make Trade Work for All, edited by Luis A. V. Catao and Maurice Obstfeld, Princeton University Press.

• "The US Gains From Trade: Valuation Using the Demand for Foreign Factor Services" (with Arnaud Costinot), Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 2018.

• "Multinational Production: Data and Stylized Facts" (with Natalia Ramondo and Felix Tintelnot), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2015. Online Appendix. Data.

• "Growth, Size, and Openness: A Quantitative Approach" (with Natalia Ramondo), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2010.

• "Endogenous Variety and the Gains from Trade" (with Costas Arkolakis, Svetlana Demidova and Pete Klenow), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2008.

• "Coordination Failures, Clusters and Microeconomic Interventions," Economia (Journal of LACEA), Fall 2005, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 1-29

• "Multinationals and Linkages: an Empirical Investigation," (with Laura Alfaro), Economia (Journal of LACEA), Spring 2004 (Volume 4, Number 2)

• "Economic Growth: A Review Essay," (with Pete Klenow) Journal of Monetary Economics, November 1997

• "The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone Too Far?" (with Pete Klenow), 1997 NBER Macroeconomics Annual

• "Positive Feedback Mechanisms in Economic Development," in Development Strategy and Management of the Market Economy, I. P. Szekeley and R. Sabot (eds), Clarendon Press Oxford, 1997.

• "On Endogenizing Long-Run Growth," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, (with Peter Hammond), vol. 95, 1993, No. 4.

Op-Eds, Applied and Policy-Oriented Papers and Reviews

• The Wrong Tariff for the Wrong Reason (op-ed in Le Monde).

• HereReview of Dani Rodrik’s “One Economics, Many Recipes”, Journal of International Economics, Volume 77, Issue 1, February 2009, Pages 133-135

• "Productive Development Policies and Supporting Institutions in Latin America and the Caribbean," February 2006 (with Alberto Melo), IADB Research Department Working Paper No. 106, published in The State of State Reform in Latin America, edited by Eduardo Lora, Stanford University Press, 2007.

• "Microeconomic Interventions after the Washington Consensus," August 2004

• "Towards a Strategy for Economic Growth  in Uruguay," December 2004 (with Ricardo Hausman and Dani Rodrik)

• “Intel: A Case Study of Foreign Direct Investment in Central America” (with Felipe Larrain and Luis F. Lopez-Calva), in Economic Development in Central America, Volume I: Growth and Internationalization, Felipe Larrain B. (ed), Harvard University Press, 2001

• "Costa Rica's Development Strategy based on Human Capital and Technology: how it got there, the impact of Intel, and lessons for other countries,” Journal of Human Development, Vol. 2, No. 2, 2001

• "Innovation and Technology Adoption in Central America," February 2003

• "Economic Growth in Costa Rica" (with Alberto Trejos and Manrique Saenz), March 2002 - Published in Spanish in Pequeñas Economias, Grandes Desafios, Manuel Agosin, Roberto Machado y Paulina Nazal (eds), Inter-American Development Bank, 2004

• "Variaciones sobre un viejo tema: acceso de las PyMEs al credito", in Ensayos en Honor a Eduardo Lizano Fait, edited by Grettel Lopez and Reinaldo Herrera, Academia de Centroamerica, 2004

• "El Papel del Estado en el Desarrollo Economico," published in Ensayos en honor a Claudio Gonzalez-Vega, edited by Grettel Lopez and Juan Carlos Obando, Academia de Centroamerica, 2003

IADB Publications

• The Emergence of China: Opportunities and Challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean, (with Robert Devlin and Antoni Estevadeordal)

• Economic and Social Progress Report 2004, Good Jobs Wanted: Labor Markets in Latin America, Inter-American Development Bank, 2003 - I wrote chapter 6, titled Employment Outcomes and the Role of Technology

• Economic and Social Progress Report 2005, Unlocking Credit: The Quest for Deep and Stable Bank Lending, Inter-American Development Bank, 2005 - I wrote chapter 14, titled Access to Financing for SMEs (with Ernesto Stein)

Old Working Papers

• "A Multivariate Distribution with Pareto Tails and Pareto Maxima" (with Costas Arkolakis, Jiun-Hua Su), May 2017

• "Gains From Trade under Monopolistic Competition: The Translog-Pareto Case" (with Costas Arkolakis and Arnaud Costinot), September 2010

• "Marshallian Externalities, Comparative Advantage, and International Trade" (with Gary Lyn), November 2011

• "Trade, Diffusion, and the Gains from Openness," November 2007 (first version November 2006). MATLAB codes and data.

• "Quantifying Variety Gains from Trade Liberalization," September 1997 (with Pete Klenow)

• "Import Tariffs, Export Subsidies, and the Theory of Trade Agreements," (with Giovanni Maggi), June 2005

• "The Role of Trade in Technology Diffusion," November 1996

• "Lobbying and the Theory of Trade Agreements" (with Giovanni Maggi), November 2011, (slides)